Prospects! part 10: Vancouver Canadians - Hitting

The Backstop - Santiago Nessy
The Budding Star - D.J. Davis
The Legacy - Dwight Smith Jr.
The Veteran - Balbino Fuenmayor
The Surprise - Matt Newman
The Slugger - Art Charles
The Sleeper - Christian Lopes

Photo: Battersbox.ca

Catcher Santiago Nessy has been on scouts' and analysts' radar for the last couple of years, making Marc Hulet's Top 15 prospects list (#13 before this off-season's trades) and was #9 (of 20) on John Sickels's list at minorleagueball.com.  He is generally categorized as a solid defensive catcher who will be able to stick behind the plate with plenty of power.  The major concern is with Nessy's propensity to strike out, which, last season, was above 25% at both the Advanced Rookie level in Bluefield and in Vancouver.  Nessy had a solid season last year in Bluefield, hitting for a .256/.320/.456 line.  While his batting average was 50 points down from his .306 season in Dunedin, his slugging was quite a bit higher as he hit 16 extra-base hits (including 8 home runs) in 160 ABs in Bluefield.  Nessy has shown improvements in his ability to take a walk, and if he can make strides in this area of the game Nessy could get people excited.  He will most likely start 2013 in Vancouver, although he could end up in Lansing if he shows promise in spring training and extended spring training (or if injuries strike).

Photo: Battersbox.ca

OF D.J. Davis (mlb.com ranking = #4) was the Jays' first selection in the 2012 draft and impressed the Blue Jays staff enough in his time last season to get advanced from the lowest minor league level, the Gulf Coast League, all the way to Short-Season A in Vancouver.  While the raw numbers aren't all that great, they should be taken with a grain of salt -- the Gulf Coast League, where he had most of his at bats, is a very difficult level on hitters.  He did show surprising power, hitting 4 HR, 7 2B and 2 3B in Dunedin at the GCL, and carried that success over to the Appalachian League (Bluefield) hitting .340 with 3 2B, 1 3B and 1 HR in only 47 ABs.  While Davis still strikes out a fair bit (28.4% in Dunedin, 18.9% in Bluefield), he has started taking walks and posted solid OBPs wherever he went.  He also has great speed and defense, stealing 25 bases last season (in only 266 PAs).  Davis will be 18 to start the season but, according to Jays Journal, he may begin 2013 as high as Lansing.  I can see the Jays starting him there to get at bats in, but then demote him to Vancouver when the Short Season schedule begins. 

Photo: Battersbox.ca

Dwight Smith Jr. (mlb.com ranking = 17) was selected 53rd overall in 2011 and made his professional baseball debut this season, playing 41 games in Bluefield and 18 games in Vancouver.  Unlike Davis, Smith struggled, only putting up a 78 wRC+*in Bluefield.  He didn't strike out that much (12.7% in Bluefield, 15.5% in Vancouver), but really has not shown the ability to hit for average.  Smith will most likely start in Vancouver, and Jonathan Mayo thinks that he'll end up being a LF in the long run.

Photo: Vancouver Canadians/MilB.com

Balbino Fuenmayor  has been around the Jays system since 2007, moving around between Rookie, Short Season A and Full Season A ball.  He hasn't really been successful but had a strong year in Vancouver last year, hitting .282/.325/.471.  His biggest problems are not enough walks and too many strikeouts, but he hit 20 2B and 9 HR in 2012.  He's a little old for Vancouver and if he doesn't start in Lansing, it may be time to write him off.

Photo: Kyle Rosetta

Matt Newman was a non-drafted Free Agent in 2011 who joined the Jays and has climbed to Vancouver in his 2 pro seasons.  Newman posted solid numbers and displayed a fair bit of speed, with 5 triples and 6 stolen bases.  His K% isn't good (23.8%) but he had a very respectable 11.7 BB%.  That, combined with solid contact contributed to a .262/.352/.462 line and a 129 wRC+.  Newman is old for the level (24 in 2013) and should start in Lansing, probably as a backup.

Photo: Yourvancs.com

Art Charles, 22, is another older player (at least for Vancouver) who's looking to being moving up through the full season meat of the Blue Jays system.  Charles is a slugging 1B/DH and has power to spare, slamming 13 HRs between Bluefield and Vancouver last season, but his OBP dropped off a cliff when he crossed the border.  Charles, a 2010 20th round draftee went from a 26.8% BB rate in Bluefield and a 9.2% BB rate in Vancouver.  His strikeout rate remained about the same, as did his batting average, so if Charles can be more patient, he could be quite productive.  Which level he'll open 2013 at is questionable.  He may stay back in Vancouver another year, or start in Lansing.

Photo: Unknown

Christian Lopes (mlb.com ranking = #12) is a sleeper infielder who's starting to get some attention (now that the top prospects in the system have been traded).  The 20 year old was drafted in the 7th round of 2011 and made his pro debut in 2012.  Like many other top prospects, he started at Bluefield and was moved up to Vancouver to end the season.  The middle-infielder is being projected to have a solid bat and good glove, although he needs more time adjust to playing 2B.  In 2012, he showed an ability to make contact, posting lower K%s than a lot of the players discussed here, but he could also be more patient.  He's definitely someone to keep an eye on in 2013, and I'd look for him to start in Lansing, or at least be an early call if there are injuries in the infield after the season starts.

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* wRC+ is a kind of catch-all statistic called "weighted Runs Created Plus." Basically it looks at how the player creates runs while taking into account ballpark factors.  The "plus" in some baseball statistics takes the basic stat and turns it into a number that compares it to league average.  100 is average, and every number above and below 100 means that the player's performance was better or worse than league average by 1 per cent.  So a 78 wRC+ means that the player was 22% below league average according to wRC.  See Fangraphs.com for more information.